Pattern Near Completion

From the chart above, you can see that waves a and b have completed. Wave c should not complete until prices touch the lower bound of the white, parallel channel drawn in the chart. So, I expect prices to continue to drop until they reach the white line. There will be some sort of bounce from there, but I am currently not sure of its degree nor duration.

S&P 500 Intraday Bias, 10:00 AM

Negative

(I am leaning towards favoring the a-b-c correction thesis of the post below.)

First Target Achieved-- Now What?

In the post titled Pull Back, I suggested that the Mid Cap index and the Russell 2000 would retest the February highs. Here is a reproduction of a chart from the post:


The retest was achieved on Friday on both indexes. Below is a follow up chart of the Russell 2000. (I will not provide the Mid Cap, which is pretty much identical):


The teal color is my original projection, but I have now realized the possibility of an a-b-c zig-zag correction, shown in red. I'll be looking for clues to project which outcome is more likely.

S&P 500 Intraday Bias, 9:49 AM

Negative

Pull Back

Prices have halted their advance over the last few trading days, with many indexes near their February highs, and some above. The latter (first two charts below) actually give a clearer visual clue as to why to expect a pull back. The third chart has a zone of where my analysis suggests a pull back would end on the S&P 500; either at a slightly higher high from the most recent 15 point reaction, or back to the 1300s for prices to form an inverse H&S.

Another reason to expect a pull back is that the T I presented in a prior post expires tomorrow as well. Today was also a potential reversal day because of the European Central Bank policy decisions. However, I would not sell (short) because there is a possibility of an upside breakout.

All charts are in 30 min bars.

S&P 500 Intraday Bias, 11:20 AM

Positive