Friday, June 3, 2011

S&P 500 Bull Market Trendline


I iterate my prior conclusion that the correction ends today; however, I would like to see a close above this trendline.
at 10:14 AM Labels:

13 comments:

  1. WinJune 3, 2011 at 12:05 PM

    Thanks - I agree and I a bit miffed that I got shaken out. Can't reverse the retirement account trades until Monday, but am back long on the trading account.

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  2. WinJune 3, 2011 at 4:07 PM

    Didn't get a close above. Also this is non log trendline, correct? My log TL comes in around 1220 right now.

    Long SLV and AGQ into the close, nothing else.

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  3. George RahalJune 3, 2011 at 4:25 PM

    Yes, prices did not close above the TL. Hrm.

    The chart in this post IS a log chart. Alternatively, I also get 1220.

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  4. ChrisJune 3, 2011 at 11:22 PM

    What kind of scaling are you using here? When I draw this trendline on a LINEAR chart, I get 1250-ish, not 1304.

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  5. ChrisJune 3, 2011 at 11:31 PM

    NVM on my last message, didn't read your latest post saying log chart.

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  6. AnonymousJune 4, 2011 at 2:20 AM

    I've read several take about this long term tread line, however from what I can see if you apply a similar trend line from the 2003 low to the 2004 low, then the 2005 low, then the 2006 low, then the trend lines looks like it was busted several times along the way, in hindsight if you applied such a trend line from the 2003 low to the 2006 low then it was surely busted in 2007 which would have been correct. So this long term trend line theory seems more hind sight then anything to me.

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  7. George RahalJune 4, 2011 at 1:22 PM

    Anon, I have found that trendlines work. It takes experimentation to choose which one to rely on, but it can be a fruitful exercise.

    The real complication in this case is whether the log or arithmetic scale will work out.

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  8. hannahzzzJune 4, 2011 at 6:45 PM

    Still feeling long all metals. Any thoughts or chart interest? Wendy

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  9. George RahalJune 5, 2011 at 5:20 PM

    I don't have any strong conviction on where metals are headed, Wendy.

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  10. AnonymousJune 5, 2011 at 11:15 PM

    Gold to $1620-1640 area by July 20-30 but silver will lag and not make it past $42/44 if at that. We then see a slide down for both these PM.

    ES could hit 1292 or 1271 area before a move up to 1370. Or it could move up to 1370 now. If it busts past 1370 then we get 1420-1440 area.

    The DX as I stated last year ( George took down his site..to become a financial planner...did not know when he came back...found from futia site which I have not visited in over 8 months) that it would hit 76-74, 73.75 and then 71.545. If I recall, George was bullish on the DX last year.....the 71.545 was suppose to come earlier end March early April, but will come in June 2011...13th?? WE then should see a consol/accumulation which should take off at end July or Aug to 88 or 95 and then down to 41 area into 2013. This is the ideal scenario. Alteratively, we could just go down to 41 but I dont think so....shorts have to be squeezed first.

    Natural gas best trade for 2011 first half or first 8 months. By Aug/Sept we either see $11.81/13/15 and my target of $18.00. $8/8.41 and 9.095 will easily be hit. EA dollar move is $10,000 smacks. To $8.00 is $40-35 k move and more if you add time value on the option.

    "So it is written so shall it be done." The future is known to those that believe in the ReBEL.....'J'

    God Luck

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  11. George RahalJune 6, 2011 at 9:29 AM

    Anonymous, thanks for sharing your thoughts on PMs, the dollar, etc. What you are sharing are conclusions. It would be more helpful to readers if you share the analysis that lead you to these conclusions.

    Thanks

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  12. A Peak Under The HoodJune 6, 2011 at 11:49 PM

    That trendline broke today

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  13. George RahalJune 6, 2011 at 11:59 PM

    That it did.

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