I Don't Buy It

The price action of the last three days, which fits the "bear market rally" description, is not enough to change my thesis of a bear market. See links below.

The third phase
Analog
Commentary

The above analysis suggests this rally is another sell opportunity. I am not sure at what price, perhaps around 1250-1270, but don't hold me to that.

S&P 500 Intraday Bias, 11/30/11

At 10:00 am, Positive, suggesting buy the dips intraday.

I would like to thank those who participated in the poll. My concern that people preferred the site without the bias has been appeased.

S&P 500 Intraday Bias, 11/29/11

At 9:52, Negative, suggesting sell the rallies intraday.

Grateful for You

This is a small site. Having a readership that I feel enjoys the site and perhaps benefits from it helps me stay committed to it. So, thank you.

S&P 500 Intraday Bias, 11/23/11

At 9:50 AM, (very) Negative, suggesting sell the rallies intraday.

Please Take Poll on Your Right

S&P 500 Intraday Bias, 11/22/11

At 10:02 AM, Neutral, suggesting consolidation

S&P 500 Intraday Bias, 11/18/11

At 10:00 AM, Neutral, suggesting consolidation.

S&P 500 Intraday Bias, 11/17/11

At 9:50, Negative, suggesting sell the rallies intraday.

S&P 500 Intraday Bias, 11/14/11

At 10:05 AM, Positive, suggesting buy the dips intraday.

S&P 500 Intraday Bias, 11/10/11

At 12:11 PM, the bias has strengthened to neutral, suggesting consolidation.

At 10:03 AM, Negative, suggesting sell the rallies intraday.

Bias and Commentary

This Saturday, I wrote "One can expect prices to continue forming a top around the 200 day moving average before the next leg down." Yesterday, prices once again hit the 200 day and now the S&P opened down 30 points. This choppy trading is a topping formation. If this thesis is correct--and evidence is mounting--the 1290 area will be the next "lower high" in a bear market, and a break below 1070 is the next significant move.

Today's bias at 9:45 AM, is negative, suggesting sell the rallies intraday.

S&P 500 Intraday Bias, 11/8/11

At 10:10 AM, no clear signal.

S&P 500 Intraday Bias, 11/07/11

At 10:00 AM, Neutral, suggesting consolidation.

*Correction at 10:06 AM -- the bias is Negative, suggesting sell the rallies intraday.

Distribution - First Leg - Recovery - Second Leg

The image above compares the earlier stages of the 2007-2009 bear market with the present. The 200 day MA is plotted on both charts. Based on the analog, one can expect prices to continue forming a top around the 200 day moving average before the next leg down.

S&P 500 Intraday Bias, 11/4/11

At 10:00 AM, Positive, suggesting buy the dips intraday.

S&P 500 Intraday Bias, 11/3/11

At at 10:22 AM, Negative, suggesting sell the rallies intraday.

S&P 500 Intraday Bias, 11/2/11

At 10:10 AM positive, suggesting buy the dips intraday. However, a gap up during a downtrend is usually faded, and today is the FOMC announcement, so I would disregard today's bias.

S&P 500 Intraday Bias, 11/1/11

At 10:08 AM, negative, suggesting sell the rallies intraday.