Thursday, August 4, 2011


The S&P hit 1200 and the VIX crossed 30. A bottom around this area makes sense. In the event of weakness tomorrow, I will use the following analysis as a tool:

Above is a fractal comparison of the 2007 bull market top with the present period. The principle I am highlighting is that the correction bottomed at the previous low minus half the distance from the previous low to high. This is analogous to Darvas boxes. In the present sitation, 1250 to 1370 was 120 points. 1250 minus 60 points yields 1190 as a price target. What I like about 1190 is that 1200 may be serving as an uncle point for some holders of stock.

Above is the Nasdaq 100, which has been the strongest index. It needs another 1.18% drop to reach its prior low, which is a natural support area-- and may provide support for other indexes. A equivalent drop would bring SPX to 1185.

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