S&P 500 Intraday Bias, 12/30/11

At 10:01 AM, Neutral, suggesting consolidation.

UPDATE: 12:30 pm, the bias has strengthened to Positive, suggesting buy the dips intraday.

S&P 500 Intraday Bias, 12/29/11

At 10:00 AM, Negative, suggesting sell the rallies intraday.

Note

A longer term chart of the indicator I used for the intraday bias is showing big negative divergences with the recent strength of the stock market. I retain my forecast of a drop in prices, the next target for the S&P being 1100-1130, which acted as support many times during this volatile autumn.

Note that TLT, the ETF for the 20 year bond, has been making higher highs and higher lows and hugging its 50 day moving average. The pattern it is forming looks like an ascending triangle, which is a "continuation pattern," meaning the prior trend, up, will resume. A upside breakout may coincide with a stock market decline.

S&P 500 Intraday Bias, 12/8/11

At 10:00 AM, Negative, suggesting sell the rallies intraday.

S&P Intraday Bias 12/27/11

At 9:40 AM, Negative, suggesting sell the rallies intraday.

S&P 500 Intraday Bias, 12/23/11

At 10:25 AM, Negative, suggesting sell the rallies intraday.

S&P 500 Intraday Bias, 12/22/11

At 10:00 AM, Positive, suggesting buy the dips intraday.

S&P 500 Intraday Bias, 12/21/11

At 9:36 AM, negative, suggesting sell the rallies intraday. (Subject to change a little later in the day.)

UPDATE, 12:30 PM: There has been NO change to the bias. I posted today at 9:36 AM because at the time, the bias was clearly negative and prices had not declined much yet, so I was trying to post ahead of the price move. Data between 9:30-10:00 AM can be noisy, so I included the "subject to change" warning.

S&P Intraday Bias 12/20/11

At 9:51 AM, Positive, suggesting buy the dips intraday.

UPDATE, 2:20 PM. The bias has weakened to neutral.

S&P 500 Intraday Bias, 12/19/11

At 9:57 AM, Negative, suggesting sell the rallies intraday.

Out for the week

I will not be available to post for the remainder of the week. Happy trading everyone.

S&P 500 Intraday Bias, 11/12/11

At 9:50 AM, Negative, suggesting sell the rallies intrady.

Friday was the final bull-trap rally.

Master Key, Chapters V-VIII

"Knowledge does not apply itself."

I am currently on Chapter XII, from which the above quotation comes, so one can deduce that I am a little behind on my updates.

Our imagination is the constructive form of Thinking. You can utilize a guided form of thinking to reach inner states and achievements for yourself. To do so requires powerful concentration; it cannot be done half-heartedly. When an ideal is fully formed in the mind--every detail laid out and perfected-- it can be realized. As such, we have a great power. That power must be guided by certain exact principles, or laws. Without them, the creative thinking process would be ineffective. We also must put these principles into practice; without application, without exercise, the intended creations are not possible.

The exercises of these chapters have been geared towards concentration and imagination, a sort of "training" for your ability to use your thinking to create and achieve.

I have not been as diligent at exercising these principles recently, but through reading the chapters carefully and discussing them, I am convinced that fully forming an ideal in your mind will lead to its actualization.

S&P 500 Intraday Bias, 12/9/11

At 9:50 AM, Negative, suggesting sell the rallies intraday.

S&P 500 Intraday Bias, 12/8/11

At 10:03 AM, Negative, suggesting sell the rallies intraday.

A topping pattern has been forming. This suggests the market will soon begin a swing down-- perhaps even today.

Recap of why I'm bearish.

S&P 500 Intraday Bias, 12/7/11

At 10:03 AM, Negative, suggesting sell the rallies intraday.

Trade

I just bought the UltraShort S&P, ticker (SDS) at 19.55. SPX was around 1255-1256. It's a small position because I don't have the resources to monitor it too closely.

S&P 500 Intraday Bias, 12/6/11

At 10:00 AM, Negative, suggesting sell the rallies intraday.

S&P 500 Intraday Bias, 12/5/11

At 10:00 AM, Positive, suggesting buy the dips intraday.

S&P 500 Intraday Bias, 11/2/11

At 9:54 AM, Positive, suggesting by the dips intraday.

Update, 11:18 AM, the bias has weakened to Neutral.

Not around today

written by phone