Thursday, January 26, 2012

Expecting Correction - In 1330 Target Zone

Several things are going on in the chart below that suggest a correction is imminent around current levels.

First is that RSI is at about 70. This is a usual overbought level after which a correction follows.

Second is that the 50 day moving average is near crossing the 200 day moving average. Although this is classically considered a bullish "golden cross," it can also be interpreted as a target area; consider the approaching of a golden cross as technical "news"-- sell the news. Earlier in the chart is a "death cross" which marked a bottom slightly earlier. A death cross also marked a price bottom in the Summer of 2010 correction.

The big blue boxes in the chart are approximate equal length, 62-65 points. I've circled in blue tops and bottoms which coincided with the box levels. Adding a box on top of the prior 1267 top yields a target of 1329-1332.

Adding all this evidence together makes for a bearish case, indicating a drop from current levels.

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