Will not post today

bias 5/30

at 10:20 am, no clear signal

update 12:00 pm, positive, suggesting buy the dips

bias 5/29

10:30 am, overbought, suggesting sell into strength

update 1:17 pm, overbought condition relieved. hold.

inverse h&s on the vix

a chart of the vix with daily bars reveals an inverse head and shoulders. target is around 28. i wouldn't give this too much credence, but it's one data point.

bias 5/25

10:23 am, negative, sell the rallies

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Feedback appreciated!!

bias 5/24

10:29, negative, suggesting sell rallies intraday

bias 5/23

10:21 am, positive, buy dips intraday

update 12:03  pm, the bias has weakened to neutral.

bias 5/22

10:56 am, overbought, suggesting sell strength intraday

update 2:23 pm: overbought condition relieved. hold.

bias 5/21

11:04 am. With the market up over 1%, stating that the bias is positive doesn't really add value, but that is the case anyhow.

Update: 1:15. The bias is very near overbought. Hold.

my two cents

Facebook, although it has plenty of growth left, is a relatively mature company. Current revenues are $4.25B. Will its revenues eventually hit $20-$25B, closer to justifying its IPO valuation, not sure, but I doubt that market will continue to expect that in the intermediate term future. Similar to what happened to linkedin, which has fewer competitors, I am whimsically predicting that the share prices will drop by 50% of its opening trading day high.

Facebook has been "priced to perfection". There are much greater chances for it to disappoint than meet expectations.

bias 5/18

10:17 am, no clear signal

bias 5/17

10:35 am, the bias is extended beyond oversold, suggesting no reversion to the mean. to be safe, hold

bias 5/16

11:14 am,  no clear signal

Update 12:12 pm: negative, sell the rallies intraday

bias 5/15

at 10:06 am, the bias is negative, suggesting sell rallies

bias 5/14

won't be able to post until afternoon

at 11:45 am, the bias is oversold, suggesting buy weakness.

Serious Resistance

bias 5/11

10:51, positive, buy the dips intraday

bias 5/10

At 10:52, negative, suggesting sell rallies intraday.

bias 5/9

At 10:57, neutral, suggesting consolidation.

Update 11:25, positive, buy dips intraday.

bias 5/8

At 10:26, beyond normal oversold, suggesting no reversion to the mean. (Usually oversold means buy weakness.) To be safe, hold.

bias 5/7

Technical difficulties this morning.

At 12:11, negative, suggesting sell the rallies intraday.

bias 5/4

At 10:21, no clear signal; Two of the there indicators comprising the bias opened at oversold, but are extended beyond suggesting a "reversion to the mean", and the third, strongest weighted one, is neutral.

bias 5/3

At 10:21, negative; sell the rallies intraday.

The S&P and Dow have doubled topped, and several indexes have lagged, including the Nasdaq 100, which most benefits from AAPL. With negative divergences, and an abundant belief that a new leg up is stretching out, I think the odds are in the favor of a continued market correction. New highs on the indexes would prove me wrong.

bias 5/2

At 11:13 AM, no clear signal intraday, but starting to encounter resistance on the daily scale.


Update, 12:56; the bias is now positive, buy the dips intraday.

bias 5/1

10:31 am: positive but approaching overbought, suggesting cautiously buy the dips intraday.