Thursday, July 12, 2012

More on Nokia and the Smartphone market

I am tracking Nokia because 1) I find this space interesting and 2) if it drops low enough it prices ($1-$1.25 my current thoughts), I believe it will be a solid buying opportunity.

Nokia's CEO, Stephen Elop, has been on board for less than two years. He worked formerly at Microsoft and is the one who made Nokia change its phone platform to one that supports Windows' mobile Operating System (OS). Fine, but why not create Android powered phones (51% US market share) as well? I don't know.

They believe Windows 8 will be a catalyst for their phone. If that catalysts disappoints, and sales and market share continue to evaporate, perhaps Mr. Elop will be booted, or Nokia will at least consider adopting Android in addition to Windows. 

Here's the real problem: at different times, I have heard various people say,

"I love Amazon." The forthcoming competitor, rumored to use Android as well. If they don't, I think they can be successful anyway; or perhaps start with Android and then switch to their own later. 
"I love Google." (Android is Google's OS.)
"I love Apple."

I have never heard anyone say, "I love Microsoft." That sentence sounds almost absurd. Moreover, I've often encountered Microsoft/Windows bashing, "Every time you use Internet Explorer [by Microsoft], God kills a kitten!" For younger generations, which phone they carry, more than anything else today, is the strongest, most external statement of one's identity-- superficial as it may be. Since it's about identity, the issue of brand, "I love Amazon/Google/Apple" reigns supreme. Religion and politics are fine, but the firmaments forbid you bring up iPhone versus Android at a dinner conversation. Android users are relatively agnostic towards device makers, Samsung, HTC, Motorola-- it's all about the OS. As such, I don't think there'd be any resistance in wedging Nokia into that list.

Given those deliberations, I don't think it would be wise for Nokia to switch to Android. Until they do, the stock price may continue to drop as a result of the repercussions of that sin of omission. As such, I am waiting patiently for an approach of my tentative price target range.

Added: At the end of the day, I'm looking to buy NOK-- I think it has much greater prospects than RIMM-- I just think more bad news can come its way, and depress its stock price, to make it a worthwhile risk/reward buy.


  1. I think you may be under estimating Windows Phone 8. Android users are fed up with the increasing fragmentation. WP8 will be following more of the Palm webOS software model (heavy on javascript, controlled hardware - OS binding). It will be more open than Apple iOS and more predictable for developers than Android. And there is one Microsoft product that people generally love - XBOX 360. Windows 7 isn't too bad either.

  2. Excellent points, CK!! Windows also has closer Facebook integration on its side.

    Users love xbox, but they don't use the product to identify themselves as individuals; it holds no social status.