bias 6/7

10:33, neutral, suggesting consolidation

bias 6/6 - and market stuff

10:53, no clear signal. the following parallel trendlines suggests that the correction that began at 1420 is over. However, the correction was in 5 distinct waves, with waves 1 and 5 being about equal length. according to elliot wave, corrections must be in three waves, which suggests that after a counter trend rally--which can retrace as much as 100%, so elliott is no great guide here) another 5 wave drop will presume.

I had made note of this same trendline earlier when I suggested on this blog that the correction would continue:

bias 6/5

9:56 am, positive, suggesting buy dips intraday

will not post bias on 6/4/12

Trade

On December 6th, I entered a short position when SPX was around 1245-55 (don't recall.) I just got out today when SPX was around 1284. Although I didn't post it, I added to this position at 1330, when it first got there.

I've learned that on a scale of 1-10, my sell discipline is a 1. Instead of getting out with gains (which I had decent ones at two points), I held this position all the way to 1420 on SPX. I was lucky prices came down this much. Net, I had a 6% loss, exacerbated by the ETF leverage decay. Not my biggest loss, but definitely my worse trade ever.

In the past, when I was net profiting trading, it was because I was doing it full time and my buying discipline was good enough to compensate for the poor selling, which has gotten worse with lack of practice.

bias 6/1

Bias opened at oversold. At 10:57, no clear signal.