Wednesday, April 6, 2011

S&P 500 Intraday Bias

I have conceived of an intraday indicator, based on market internals, sector relative strength and part judgment (like interpreting news reactions), to estimate what I call an intraday bias. During any given period of normal trading hours, market direction(S&P 500) may have a positive, negative, or neutral bias. The bias can also change intraday, from neutral to positive or negative and vice-versa.

The advantages of this type of indicator is that it is not based on market prices; such trend following indicators are more wont to give delayed signals. The bias' best signals are when positive during a market dip (safer buy) or negative during a market rise (safer sell). Last, the signal does not tell you when or at what price to buy, sell or hold; it only suggests whether the environment is favorable to any of those trades. I originally devised this to aid me in day trading the S&P 500 e-mini futures.

The indicator usually requires 30 min of intraday data to give a clear signal. Hence, I plan to post the bias near 10 AM, and will post again if the signal changes.

Since judgment is involved, I have not kept a historical record on its accuracy. It is also time consuming.

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